Greece
Source:
moderndiplomacy.eu Imagine currencies flowing across invisible bridges—no longer slowed by borders, intermediaries, or the weight of dollar dominance. This is the vision behind
mBridge, a multi-CBDC project built on a federated architecture and spearheaded by the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and, most recently, Saudi Arabia. Its trials are not merely about testing faster cross-border transactions; they carry profound geopolitical resonance.
From Experiment to Geopolitical ToolBy mid-2024, mBridge had already reached a
Minimum Viable Product (MVP) stage, proving that cross-border transactions using CBDCs can move from theory to practice. Four founding central banks established validator nodes, and commercial banks executed live transactions, while major Chinese banks like Bank of China also joined. This blend of public authority and private innovation demonstrates how mBridge is evolving into more than an experiment.
The project, launched through the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) with founding members in Asia and the Gulf, expanded in 2024 when the Saudi Central Bank joined. Interoperability is central: mBridge has the potential to link with systems like Indonesia’s QRIS, India’s UPI, and Brazil’s Pix, offering the possibility of layering national gateways onto a shared global platform. Some reports, including commentary noted by Reuters in late 2024, have suggested that BIS may step back from the project. It raises questions about governance, neutrality, and long-term sustainability. This remains the author’s interpretation of how mBridge might evolve: as either a BRICS-driven initiative or a broader global framework.
Dunbar, Jura, and Why mBridge Stands OutOther federated CBDC experiments exist. The
Dunbar Project, led by BIS with Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, and South Africa, built a prototype for multi-CBDC settlements, though governance questions remain. The
Jura Project, run by Banque de France and the Swiss National Bank, showed cross-border wholesale transfers between the Euro and Swiss Franc, but on a narrow regional scale.
These initiatives demonstrate feasibility. But
mBridge is best positioned to scale because it is backed by BRICS economies, combining geopolitical weight with massive domestic markets. BRICS members already run robust payment systems like QRIS, UPI, and Pix, which could be layered onto mBridge. Just as crucially, these countries need innovative systems to reach millions who remain unbanked—giving mBridge both supply and demand power.
Visa, Mastercard, and the Global StakesThe inclusion of
Visa and Mastercard could redefine mBridge’s future. Their global networks cover billions of consumers, enabling CBDCs to move quickly from state-led pilots to everyday payments. They also bring expertise in fraud prevention, scalability, and value-added services like digital identity and loyalty programs. Their presence could also weaken reliance on the U.S. dollar and SWIFT, offering the Global South greater autonomy in trade.
Yet challenges loom. Visa and Mastercard’s fee-based business models may erode as CBDCs allow direct settlements. Sovereignty concerns will rise as BRICS nations prioritize national systems over external players. Privacy and regulatory compliance will demand careful balancing, especially given the firms’ history of data collection. And entrenched powers defending the dollar’s dominance and SWIFT’s legacy role may resist change. Above all, mass adoption remains uncertain—requiring trust, incentives, and infrastructure.
Inclusion, Efficiency, and the Digital Economy AheadCBDCs promise not just faster payments but broader financial inclusion. Mobile-based access can reach the 1.6 billion unbanked worldwide, while reducing remittance costs for migrant workers in Asia and Africa. For the Global South, the stakes are practical and immediate.
Looking forward, mBridge could become the settlement backbone for the digital economy. As NFTs, in-game assets, virtual real estate, intellectual property, and carbon credits are traded across borders, demand for a trusted, real-time settlement system will grow. Current rails are siloed and costly; a federated CBDC like mBridge could clear digital trade globally.
Examples are already visible:
- In Southeast Asia, gaming economies generate billions as players trade digital items across borders. A federated CBDC could provide the backbone to scale these markets.
- In Africa, digital art and design services face hurdles in international payments. A trusted CBDC system could pay creators instantly and fairly.
- In Latin America, carbon credit trading is emerging. Embedding settlement in a CBDC framework could make these green markets more credible and liquid.
Bridging the Global South and NorthInstitutions such as
Brookings and
Chatham House have highlighted that CBDCs should serve as tools of efficiency while also fostering global cooperation. Brookings has argued for interoperable standards and inclusive governance frameworks, while Chatham House stresses balancing innovation with systemic stability. Embedding these principles into mBridge could transform it into more than a BRICS-led initiative: it could become a platform for dialogue between the Global South and North. The South contributes innovation and inclusion, while the North offers regulatory safeguards and governance experience—creating co-ownership rather than confrontation.
Closing ReflectionmBridge is more than a technical milestone—it is a geopolitical trial. It shows how the Global South can design infrastructures that accelerate transactions, expand inclusion, and challenge financial orthodoxies. If successful, it could rebalance who writes the rules of global finance—placing cities like Beijing, Bangkok, Jakarta, São Paulo, and Nairobi alongside New York and London.
The choice ahead is stark. Will mBridge become a bridge of collaboration or another frontier of polarization? Policymakers must decide whether to build shared systems that deliver inclusion—or cling to old rivalries that preserve the dollar’s dominance and SWIFT’s control. As Brookings and Chatham House suggest, cooperative governance offers the best chance to make mBridge a genuine bridge—not just for currencies, but for dialogue between South and North.