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countercurrents.org The BRICS consortium—once dismissed as a loose association of emerging economies—has begun to evolve into one of the most consequential forces of the 21st century. With the Cross-Border Interbank Payments System (CIPS) now spread across 185 countries, allowing global trade in Chinese yuan without touching the U.S. dollar, the signs are unmistakable: the monopoly of Western-led finance is beginning to crack (New Development Bank data, 2025).
For years, the dollar served as both the lubricant and leash of global power. It gave the United States the capacity to sanction, to punish, and to dictate terms to the Global South under the guise of stability. Today, that monopoly is eroding. The **BRICS alliance—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and now joined by others including Egypt, Iran, and the UAE—**is reshaping not only the architecture of trade but also the moral geography of global power (Reuters, Oct 2024).
A shift away from the dollarCIPS, created by China in 2015, is rapidly becoming the nervous system of an emerging non-Western economy. It allows countries to settle trade in local currencies, bypassing the dollar and, by extension, U.S. surveillance and sanctions. The system now links financial institutions across 185 countries—an astonishing expansion that signals a new confidence in the yuan and in the idea of a multi-currency world (Carnegie Endowment, 2025).
This “de-dollarisation” movement is not an act of rebellion; it is self-defence. After decades of dollar dominance, developing countries have learned that the global financial order can be weaponised at will—whether through sanctions, exclusion from SWIFT, or the manipulation of credit ratings. BRICS offers an escape hatch from that coercion (The Guardian, Aug 2023).
The New Development Bank (NDB), headquartered in Shanghai, has further institutionalised this autonomy. By financing infrastructure and development projects without the political strings typical of Western lenders, it gives nations the freedom to borrow and build without being lectured on governance or ideology (NDB Annual Report, 2024).
A multipolar futureBRICS is not just a trading bloc. Rather, it represents a renewed worldview. Its guiding principle is multipolarity: the belief that no single nation should dominate the world’s political and economic life. In this respect, BRICS challenges not only the West’s power but its very idea of what “order” means.
The bloc’s expansion into West Asia and Africa symbolises a profound geopolitical shift. The admission of oil powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran indicates that even the traditional pillars of U.S. influence are recalibrating their loyalties (The National, 2023). Africa, long treated as a pawn in the global chessboard, now finds in BRICS a forum that listens rather than dictates.
For the West, this is unsettling. It means the G7 is no longer the only table that matters. For the Global South, it is liberating—a chance to redefine what development, democracy, and sovereignty might mean on our own terms.
Scenarios for the decade ahead1. The Best-Case Scenario: The Rise of Equitable Multipolarity
In the most optimistic vision, BRICS succeeds in institutionalising financial cooperation through an expanded CIPS, a BRICS currency for settlements, and a strengthened NDB. Global trade becomes less dollar-dependent, reducing vulnerability to Western sanctions. Regional powers—India, Brazil, South Africa—gain voice in shaping global climate and development policy (Economist Intelligence Unit, 2024).
2. The Middle Path: Parallel Systems, Uneasy Coexistence
In a more probable outcome, BRICS evolves into a robust but fragmented alternative. It builds an impressive financial ecosystem, but internal rivalries—China’s dominance, India’s cautious approach, Russia’s isolation—limit coherence. The global economy becomes bifurcated: one network led by the U.S. and Europe, another by BRICS.
3. The Worst-Case Scenario: Fragmentation and Financial Warfare
The dark possibility is that de-dollarisation turns into confrontation. Western powers retaliate through secondary sanctions, protectionist trade laws, and military posturing. CIPS and SWIFT become symbols of two rival camps, echoing a digital-age Cold War (Financial Times, 2024).
If that happens, countries like India could find themselves trapped between systems, forced to choose sides. Smaller economies could suffer from volatility and reduced access to global finance. The global commons—climate, peace, and poverty reduction—would suffer as great powers lock horns over financial supremacy.
The India factorIndia stands at the crossroads of these futures. Its economy is large enough to be indispensable, yet still vulnerable to external shocks. As part of BRICS, India gains access to alternative finance and markets across Africa, Latin America, and Eurasia. But it must tread carefully.
China’s leadership within BRICS remains a double-edged sword. While Beijing’s economic heft fuels the bloc’s rise, it also risks turning the coalition into a Chinese sphere of influence. India’s task is to ensure BRICS remains a truly multilateral platform—one that amplifies rather than subordinates the voices of the Global South.
New Delhi’s diplomatic tightrope will be to deepen cooperation within BRICS without alienating its partners in the West. That balance is not impossible. In fact, it may define the future of India’s global stature—its ability to bridge worlds rather than be trapped between them.
A new moral geographyBeyond economics and diplomacy, BRICS represents a moral reordering. It challenges the assumption that development must follow the Western path or that democracy has a single model. It calls out the hypocrisy of nations that preach equality while perpetuating economic hierarchies.
But power can corrupt any side. The moral legitimacy of BRICS will depend on whether it upholds fairness, transparency, and justice within its own ranks. If it merely reproduces old patterns under new flags, it will be a disappointment.
The hard truthThe world is undergoing a quiet revolution. Power is dispersing. The monopoly of the West—built on centuries of financial control—is being contested by a new coalition that seeks dignity, not dominance. Whether this becomes a more just order or merely another empire in disguise will depend on how nations use this moment.
BRICS is no magic solution. It is, at best, a new architecture under construction—one that might finally give the Global South a say in the design of its own future.
For now, what we are witnessing is not just economic diversification. It is the return of history itself—the struggle of nations to reclaim agency from the few who long monopolised it.