Russia
Source: en.interaffairs.ru

The risk of a nuclear exchange does exist but Moscow will do everything possible to prevent it, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said in an interview with TASS.

"We have said everything that needed to be said in terms of scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons; the president has made statements on the matter and it is also reflected in the updated foundations of Russia’s state policy in the field of nuclear deterrence. Saying that this risk is not there anymore would violate the truth. Unfortunately, such a risk does exist," he noted, commenting on a Science Times article about the possible outcome of a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US.

"We will do the most we can to prevent this catastrophic scenario," Ryabkov pointed out. "However, not everything depends on us in this case," he added.

"In the past, major research was carried out, many times, including by professionals, in order to assess potential consequences. Today, the situation is very difficult and tense," the Russian deputy foreign minister concluded.

Russia is considering a resumption of nuclear tests as the US pursues escalatory policies, Sergey Ryabkov said.

Asked whether Moscow could resume nuclear tests in response to US escalatory policies, he said, "There is this issue. I don’t want to portend anything but will simply say that the situation is quite complicated. It is under constant review in the entirety of all its elements and in all its aspects."
The US is seeking to use all opportunities to harm Russia, but it will not be able to prevent the accomplishment of the goals of the special military operation, Sergey Ryabkov said.

"I have the impression that life hasn’t taught any lessons to decision-makers in the White House, and they use all the opportunities that remain even for ‘lame ducks’ to harm us and prevent us from accomplishing the goals of the special military operation. But they will not succeed," he said.
The diplomat was responding to a request to comment on news reports that US President Joe Biden had asked Congress for an additional $24 billion in aid for Ukraine.

"First we need to study what really happened and how much and for what purposes was requested. All this causes indignation and rejection on our part," the diplomat said.

The United States’ actions against Russia undermine its own competitiveness, Sergey Ryabkov said.
"By the way, they [the Americans] have long been working to undermine the competitiveness of the European Union’s economies. As for this field (uranium supplies), their reckless and irresponsible policy will eventually undermine their own competitiveness. It’s their choice and we aren’t going to be upset about it," he noted.

According to Ryabkov, Washington’s policy causes harm to the United States. "Unfortunately, they don’t fully understand it," the senior Russian diplomat added.

There are countries interested in purchasing Russian uranium so Moscow will be able to ensure continued exports, Sergey Ryabkov said.

"There are customers that are very interested. The current price level makes it clear that our interests will not suffer," Ryabkov noted, commenting on Moscow’s move.

According to him, debates have been going on for a while about the need for Russia to stop supplying strategic goods to its opponents. "Some time ago, the Americans took steps that would eventually reduce Russian exports. However, we are confident that we will be able to ensure exports to other markets," Ryabkov added.

According to the Russian cabinet, the restrictions concern the export of enriched uranium to the US or its export under foreign trade agreements with entities registered in the jurisdiction of the United States. An exception was provided for supplies under one-time licenses issued by the Federal Service for Technical and Export Control. The move came in response to the restriction that Washington had imposed on Russian uranium imports for 2024-2027, and a future ban on imports starting in 2028.

Moscow intends to release the complete list of the BRICS group’s new partner states before the end of the year, Sergey Ryabkov said.

"We expect to publish the complete list of the countries that will become BRICS partners before Russia’s chairmanship ends at the end of the year. I cannot name these countries at this point because it will be at odds with the course of action that we agreed on with other BRICS members and have been pursuing since the Kazan Summit," he said in response to the question.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said following the BRICS summit in the Russian city of Kazan that the list of the group’s partner states had been agreed on. However, the list wasn’t made public. The Russian leader explained that first, invitations would be sent to those countries and once they gave a positive response, the countries’ names would be announced.

Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates became members of the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) on January 1, 2024. Brazil will take over the BRICS chairmanship next year.

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South Africa
Source: www.iol.co.za

Newly elected US president Donald Trump has threatened BRICS countries with 100% tariffs if they continue pursuing the idea of creating a new currency.

Trump said he wants Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa to commit to not creating a new currency.

"The idea that the BRICS countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by, and watch is over. We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new BRICS currency, nor back any other currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. economy," Trump wrote on his social media page, X.

BRICS was formed in 2009 by four countries and South Africa joined in 2010. During this year's summit held in Kazan, Russia, President Vladimir Putin said five new members—Egypt, Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Ethiopia have also joined the bloc —bringing the total number of countries in the alliance to ten.

Reacting to Trump's message, former public protector advocate Thuli Madonsela replied on Trumps message and said no country has a right to assert supremacy over others and order them to submit to its domination.

"To African leaders, please consider President-Elect Trump’s threat as a cue to diversify your economies especially trade arrangements," she wrote.

However, some social media users agreed with Trump's statement.

@Nancy_2011·2h "...US is not abusing its position; it’s protecting itself from abuse. Unseat the dollar and pay full tariff sounds like fair play."

@jarryd_za "He who has the bigger stick and bigger economy makes the rules...that's how it's always been, and nothing will change that."

@iRieRastaZa·2h "BRICS countries cannot have their bread buttered on both sides."

@WendyHousesHub·2h "I like the idea of standing up to bullies. The question is, do we have a plan or agenda to stand up or is just rhetoric. Russia had well-orchestrated plan for years to build reserves to cushion from shocks."

@Gerrie93731712 "Trump is running a business, he is the CEO and the business's name is USA. Cry-babies will cry, but that's the way business worked historical, currently and will in the future. Only problem is those on the losing end don't like rules and procedures."

However, Madonsela said she rejects responses that say whoever has greater economic means must call the shots and those in a weaker economic position should comply.

"Such supremacist paradigms enable pathologies like Gender Based Violence (GBV) to prevail with impunity. Establishing a fairer world requires the challenging of bullies and related supremacists," she said.

India
Source: www.thenationalnews.com

Trump’s tariff threats to Brics set to increase demand for alternative reserve currency
It may accelerate the group’s efforts to create alternative financial systems but they might struggle to replace the greenback, experts say

US president-elect Donald Trump’s threat to the Brics nations of imposing 100 per cent tariffs if they avoid using the US dollar could possibly increase demand for an alternative reserve currency, according to experts.

On Saturday, Mr Trump warned the group that he would require commitments that they would not move to create a new currency.

“The idea that the Brics countries are trying to move away from the dollar while we stand by and watch is over,” Mr Trump said in a post to his Truth Social network.

“We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new Brics currency, nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar or, they will face 100 per cent tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US economy.”

You leave the dollar and you’re not doing business with the United States because we are going to put a 100 per cent tariff on your goods

Donald Trump. US President-elect

The Brics group is made up primarily of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but has recently expanded to include Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Argentina, Egypt and Ethiopia. This year, Russia assumed the rotating chairmanship of the group.

Thirty-four countries have submitted an expression of interest in joining the bloc of major emerging economies, South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said in February.

Imposing tariffs on Brics nations for pursuing de-dollarisation might accelerate those countries’ efforts to create alternative financial systems, reducing reliance on the US dollar and potentially weakening its global dominance while fostering closer economic ties among Brics nations, says Dhruv Tanna, head of compliance and money laundering reporting officer at PhillipCapital, an integrated financial institution based in Dubai’s DIFC.

“It could also escalate trade tensions, disrupt global supply chains, raise consumer prices in the US, and harm US exporters through retaliatory measures,” Mr Tanna says.

On his campaign trail, Mr Trump pledged to make it costly for countries to move away from the US dollar, threatening to use tariffs to ensure compliance.

“You leave the dollar and you’re not doing business with the United States because we are going to put a 100 per cent tariff on your goods,” Mr Trump said at a rally in Wisconsin in September.

The president-elect, who has long embraced protectionist trade policies, has been discussing with his economic advisers ways to penalise countries that engage in bilateral trade using currencies other than the dollar.
Mr Trump has long stressed that he wants the US dollar to remain the world’s reserve currency. He said in a March interview with CNBC that he “would not allow countries to go off the dollar” because it would be “a hit to our country”.

“There is no chance that the Brics will replace the US dollar in international trade, and any country that tries should wave goodbye to America,” Mr Trump said on Saturday.

While dollar dominance has declined in recent decades, the US currency still accounted for 59 per cent of official foreign exchange reserves in the first quarter of 2024, with the euro following at almost 20 per cent, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The dollar has also been the world’s principal reserve currency since the end of the Second World War and is estimated to be used in more than 80 per cent of international trade.

Resistance against the US dollar was popular at a Brics summit of emerging and developing nations in Johannesburg last year.

Former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo told the gathering: “I want to buy from India. Why should I use dollars?”

However, this is not a new idea. In 2009, China’s central bank governor of the time, Zhou Xiaochuan, called for a “super sovereign reserve currency” that would be “disconnected from individual nations”.
Last year, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva proposed creating a common currency in South America to reduce reliance on the US dollar.

In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused western powers of “weaponising” the dollar, saying at a Brics summit in Kazan that sanctions against Russia since its invasion of Ukraine “undermine the trust in this currency and diminish its powers”.

The process of de-dollarisation is “irreversible” and “gaining pace”, Mr Putin said last year in a virtual address to the Brics summit in Johannesburg.

“Tariff threats already appear central to the next Trump administration’s trade and foreign policies,” says Hasnain Malik, head of emerging and frontier markets investment strategy at Dubai-based independent research and data provider Tellimer.

“Weaponising trade with the US and the use of the US dollar likely only increase the demand from other countries for an alternative dominant reserve and trade currency. Part of the rise in the price of gold is a reflection of this.”

However, because rival currencies lack the combination of full convertibility, market-determined pricing, and the backing of a tested legal system, they will struggle to replace the US dollar as a reserve currency in any event, with or without Mr Trump's threats, Mr Malik explains.

Similarly, Shigeto Kondo, a senior researcher at the Japanese Institute of Middle Eastern Economies Centre of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, says threatening to raise tariffs is a tactic to pressure the Brics countries.

Since it is not realistic for the Brics countries to create a common currency with substance, the possibility of such a threat being carried out is also low, he reckons.

“In the US, there is a bipartisan call for a tough stance to be taken against China. Several hardliners have also been named to join the next Trump administration. The US is prepared to take countermeasures against any moves led by China that could threaten US hegemony, even if they are unlikely to materialise,” Mr Kondo says.

“Although China is the largest economy in the Brics bloc, its currency, the renminbi is strictly controlled by the government, causing the lack of ample share in the world’s foreign reserves. The US dollar is by far the most widely used currency in international trade and finance.”

Mr Trump has already rattled world markets ahead of his second term with threats to levy an additional 10 per cent tariffs on goods from China and 25 per cent tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada if those countries do not do more to stem the flow of illegal drugs and undocumented migrants across US borders.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met Mr Trump on Friday to discuss trade and border issues, aiming to ease tensions between the two nations after the tariff threat.

Some members of Brics are among the US’s largest trading partners, including India and China.
The US’s goods and services trade with China totalled an estimated $758.4 billion in 2022 and the goods-and-services trade between the US and India totalled an estimated $191.8 billion in 2022, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative.

Calls for a global shift away from dollar dominance are not new, but experts say recent geopolitical shifts and growing tension between the West and Russia and China have brought them to the fore.
In early 2022, Western sanctions over Russian’s invasion of Ukraine froze nearly half of Russia’s foreign currency reserves and removed major Russian banks from Swift, a messaging network banks use to enable international payments.

Russia
Source: russiancouncil.ru

The Declaration of the 16th BRICS Summit, held in Kazan from October 22–24, 2024, emphasized that the heads of state and government of BRICS countries endorsed Russia’s initiative to establish a grain trading platform, or a BRICS Grain Exchange, within the bloc. The plan was first proposed by the Union of Grain Exporters to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture in December 2023, citing concerns that “BRICS countries, being key players in the global grain market, are unable to fully participate in setting prices for such key agricultural products as wheat, barley and corn, which are crucial for their food security and economies.” Russian President Vladimir Putin backed the union’s proposal for the BRICS grain exchange at a meeting with agricultural producers in March 2024.

The idea of creating the grain exchange is unquestionably relevant. It was noted that such a step would enable BRICS members, first, to protect their domestic markets from external interference, and second, to set fair grain prices. In addition, it could introduce a transparent settlement mechanism, potentially incorporating digital currencies. Beyond this, a common trading platform within BRICS could address broader goals. First of all, it would foster deeper integration among BRICS nations both in agricultural production and in mutual trade. The exchange would also promote genuine multipolarity in international trade, countering the monopoly of major US grain exchanges. The new exchange would mitigate uncertainty shocks in the food market by ensuring a stable grain supply, not only for BRICS countries but also for other countries of the Global South.

This prompts the question: why has this initiative been put forward now? To find the answer, it is necessary to analyze the current dynamics of the global grain market. In 2023, wheat accounted for 37% of world trade in cereals, corn for 33%, rice for 21%, barley for 6% and other crops for only 3%. These proportions have remained consistent over the past five years, with minor fluctuations. It should be noted that the world grain export market is highly concentrated. In 2023, the leading exporters of wheat were Russia (17% of global exports), Australia (16%), Canada (15%) and the US (10%). In the corn market, Brazil and the US each exported 26% of the global total, followed by Argentina with 11%. India led rice exports with over 30% of the global total, followed by Thailand (12%) and Vietnam (11%). On the other hand, the world grain import market was much more diversified in 2023. Major wheat importers included China, Egypt and Indonesia; China, Mexico and Japan dominated corn imports, while Indonesia, the Philippines and Saudi Arabia led rice imports. Even without delving deep into statistics, it is clear that BRICS countries — Russia, India and Brazil — were leaders in grain exports, while China, Egypt, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia were top importers.

The exchanges with the largest volume of international grain trade are the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the Minneapolis Grain Exchange and the Intercontinental Exchange, which means that most grain trading is done at exchanges either located in the US or owned by American companies. Among major exchanges for rice, the Tokyo Grain Exchange (Japan) and the Dalian Commodity Exchange (China) stand out, but the latter remains only partially open to foreign investors. Trading platforms, as President Putin pointed out, are based in the US.

The expansion of BRICS and a significant increase in its international clout require institutional changes to the trade conditions prevailing in the global market. Following the accession of new members, BRICS nations account for 44% of the world's grain production, including 48% of wheat, 55% of rice and 40% of corn. Despite Western sanctions, Russia remains a major player in the global grain market, so there is an urgent need to establish new institutions to improve the competitiveness of Russian exports. India and Brazil are also global market leaders in their respective grain segments. At the same time, BRICS countries do not act as competitors in grain markets, as they export different types of cereals due to their distinct natural conditions and cultural traditions. The BRICS grain exchange will, therefore, unite the world’s largest grain buyers and exporters, strengthening geopolitical ties among the bloc’s members through mutual trade relations. Among other things, the exchange will serve to balance supply and demand, organize and harmonize grain resources, as well as stimulate the intra-BRICS market.

The grain exchange is expected to be based on a fundamentally new mechanism. Eduard Zernin, Chairman of the Management Board of the Union of Grain Exporters, explained: “We use the term ‘exchange’ rather for reference … we should be talking about a modern, high-tech digital marketplace,” which would allow “buyers to purchase standard grain lots directly from producers and exporters, ensuring transparent and secure transactions between the parties.” Within the integration framework, existing exchanges could be consolidated, or entirely new formats could emerge. For example, the BRICS Exchange Alliance was first established in 2011 at the 51st annual general meeting of the World Federation of Exchanges in Johannesburg. The purpose of this alliance is to provide easier access for foreign investors to the BRICS markets. This group of exchanges, known as BRICSMART, includes Brazil’s BM&FBOVESPA in Sao Paulo, Russia’s Moscow Exchange MOEX, India’s BSE Ltd, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) and South Africa's Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE Limited).

The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is also currently implementing a project to establish a similar exchange. By the end of 2024, the member states plan to approve the concept and development program for commodity exchange trading, with a common exchange market within the EAEU slated for launch in 2025. This commodity exchange will serve as a mechanism for integration by facilitating cross-border transactions and fostering connections among participants in commodity sectors. The establishment of a common commodity exchange market of the EAEU will provide seamless access for participants to trading across all member states. The project also involves addressing issues related to the development of clearing infrastructure, organization of logistics for physical deliveries, harmonization of standards for electronic document workflows, as well as alignment of EAEU member states’ approaches to commodity specifications for exchange trading.

There is no doubt that the BRICS grain exchange will rely on digital technologies in its operations, including information sharing, clearing settlements and logistics. It should be noted that the market of digital commerce and settlements is widely represented in BRICS. Statistics show that the contribution of the digital economy to their GDPs is steadily growing. Russia and Brazil have invested heavily in digital infrastructure, spending 1.3 trillion rubles in 2023 (some experts suggest the figure could be as high as 3.5 trillion rubles) and $27.6 billion in 2024, respectively. India, one of the global leaders in IT services and artificial intelligence, became the first country in the world to introduce instant interbank transfers in 2016, which revolutionized digital payments and secured the country’s leadership in this field. In recent years, the UAE has launched several digital platforms, including those powered by AI.

India boasts invaluable experience in creating a digital agricultural exchange. In 2007, the Agri Exchange information portal was launched as an online marketplace for agricultural goods. It was designed to provide information about the needs of stakeholders trading in agricultural commodities. The portal offers data on trade statistics, prices and international market trends, including importers seeking to purchase agricultural goods. Agri Exchange also provides information about the importing countries interested in sourcing from India, export and import statistics, global agricultural production, international prices, regulations and tariffs of importing countries. A step-by-step export guide is available, covering shipment preparation, packaging, labeling, warehousing and cold storage, logistics, export documentation process, as well as subsidies and incentives offered by various organizations. Importers can access all the necessary information, including an agricultural products gallery, exporters directory, export and import statistics, the list of importing countries, as well as production and statistics by state, quality indicators, logistics and buy/sell leads that importers need. As a result, the digital agricultural exchange acts as a one-stop solution for suppliers and buyers, offering insights into current market dynamics. India has other digital platforms that enable entrepreneurs, including small businesses, to competitively trade in goods. In particular, the government launched in 2016 a unified digital market for agricultural commodities called e-NAM. According to experts, this pan-India platform is functioning.

BRICS countries have the know-how in developing unified exchanges, including with digital solutions, which will make it possible to use alternative settlement methods. This expertise paves the way for a new grain exchange to be created within the bloc, which will then be extended to other agricultural commodities. It will strengthen the integration within the newly expanded BRICS and showcase the growth of genuine multipolarity in international trade.